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Flemington - Thursday November 8

BY Alex Marsh -
1 week ago Tips
  • Rail Position: Out 5m.
  • Track Conditions: Soft 5.
  • Track Comments: Rail goes out an extra 3m from Cup day. I suspect the inside will hold up early and then they'll fan out more as the meeting wears on.

Race 9, No. 16 BLEU ROCHE

At close to $6, I'm with this Matt Laurie trained filly in the get-out of what is a tough Oaks card. Huge effort at the Valley under the circumstances where she'll strip fitter as she was a month between runs there. Back to a fillies race where most of the better one's have already peaked or have suspect form up the straight.

Race 8, No. 12 COLLECTABLE

Open Oaks field, but she went as well and made ground better than any other filly in that Ethereal Stakes. Out of a QLD Oaks winner, she'll appreciate the bigger circuit at HQ and it's not surprising there's been money for her this morning. We're still getting good each way odds at around $12-$13.

James Cummings is striking at 23.5% at Flemington this season and he saddles up 8 runners today for the in-form team Godolphin.

Race 6, No. 4 KAEPERNICK

Hard horse to catch but has been heavily supported to win here fresh ($9.00-$5.50) and at a price there's been a good move for Tavidance in race 7 ($19.00-$8.00).

Leg 1: 1,2,3,4,8,9,10,11

Leg 2: 3,6,10,14

Leg 3: 1,2,4,11,12

Leg 4: 16

$80 gets you 50%.

Selections

Race 1: 1-5-7-9. 2yo raffle to start and respect the betting. Wedgetail was a complete forgive at the Valley, though and he might be the each way value at the double figures if you're chasing a price.

Race 2: 1-10-6-5. Competitive mares race but had excuses in the fresh effort at Cranbourne. Class mare of this and an each way chance if the inside is holding up.

Race 3: 6-7-5-8. Beat home Royal Ace two back (has since won two in a row) and was 2.5 lengths off the subsequent Group 1 Cantala winner at Caulfield. That's good enough for this.

Race 4: 3-6-2-1. Terrific return at Geelong and this is the target race (should have won it last year). Doesn't want it any wetter but he's pretty honest.

Race 5: 4-7-1-13. Geelong win was sound enough and is weighted very well here given her rating. Looks the safest each way hope amongst these.

Race 6: 8-4-3-2. Competitive sprint but respect if there's any moves for Illustrious Lad. In very well under the conditions of this sprint and 16 could be a perfect draw come then.

Race 7: 3-10-14-6. Only worry is if that Vase effort has flattened him (were excuses, though and this is much easier) otherwise this looks the perfect placement going of his previous work.

Race 8: 12-4-1-11. Bolter see above.

Race 9: 16-8-10-3. Best Bet see above..

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